https://geekhuashan.com/blog 在原子与比特之间游走 - Between Atoms & Bits - 配方科学家的技术博客，探索化学配方与编程代码的交汇点，分享实验室自动化、AI 工具实践和生活思考 zh geekhuashan@gmail.com (geekhuashan) geekhuashan@gmail.com (geekhuashan) Fri, 26 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://geekhuashan.com/blog/polymarket-efficient-market-t-stat https://geekhuashan.com/blog/polymarket-efficient-market-t-stat An honest post-mortem of a quantitative failure: a +36% in a small sample, beaten back toward zero by t-statistics and the law of large numbers; and why much of homogeneous competition works the same way. Fri, 26 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT geekhuashan@gmail.com (geekhuashan) 量化与投资 https://geekhuashan.com/blog/polymarket-efficient-market-t-stat https://geekhuashan.com/blog/polymarket-efficient-market-t-stat 一次诚实的量化失败复盘：小样本里的 +36%，被 t 统计量和大数定律一步步打回接近 0；以及为什么很多同质化竞争也是这样。 Fri, 26 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT geekhuashan@gmail.com (geekhuashan) 量化与投资